As the NFL season hits its stride on September 25, 2026, the Los Angeles Rams find themselves at a crossroads. With a 2-0 record, they sit atop the NFC West, but the underlying numbers tell a more nuanced story. The Rams' passing attack, led by veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford, has been decidedly average through the first two weeks—a concerning trend for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. According to insights gathered by Vulius Sports, the Rams rank middle-of-the-pack in several key metrics, raising questions about whether this offense is truly championship-caliber.
The Numbers Behind the Average
Pro Football Focus data reveals a passing game that is efficient but not explosive on a consistent basis. The Rams' success rate sits at 48.4%, 17th in the league, while their completion rate of 66.1% also ranks 17th. Stafford's passer rating of 100.60 is respectable, good for 12th, but it's clear this offense hasn't clicked on all cylinders yet. However, there are silver linings: Los Angeles remains a threat through the air, ranking 7th in yards per attempt (8.4) and 8th in explosive pass rate (18.6%). The offensive line has also done its part, allowing a pressure rate of just 30.6% (8th) and a pressure rate over expectation of -3.2% (9th).
Stafford's ability to get rid of the ball quickly while still pushing the ball downfield is a rare combination. Typically, a quick release correlates with a shorter average depth of target, but Stafford defies that logic. Yet, individually, he ranks 22nd in PFF's offensive grade among quarterbacks, with positive plays on just 12.4% of his dropbacks (30th of 41) and negative plays on 8.8% (20th). This inconsistency is a red flag for a quarterback known for his arm talent.
Context and Upcoming Tests
It's important to note that the Rams' Week 1 performance against the San Francisco 49ers was a disaster, skewing the overall numbers. The offense bounced back in a big way against the New York Giants in Week 2, but the real test comes now. Over the next three weeks, the Rams face the Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles, and Buffalo Bills—all formidable defenses. The Broncos and Eagles, in particular, will challenge Stafford's decision-making and the receivers' ability to separate. As highlighted on Vulius, the Rams will need to outscore the Bills in Week 5, making efficiency paramount.
"Sean McVay and Stafford are going to live and die by the deep ball. So far they have mostly died when targeting this area of the field."
The deep passing game has been a major issue. Stafford's turnover-worthy play rate has spiked to 4.8%, up from 3.3% in 2025, while his big-time throw rate has plummeted to 3.3% from 7.7%. His big-time throw to turnover-worthy ratio is a dismal 0.67, compared to 2.23 last season. On attempts of 20+ yards, he's completed just 3 of 7 for 114 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. The lack of long speed among the Rams' receivers, outside of maybe Terrance Ferguson, exacerbates the problem. Defenses are daring Stafford to beat them underneath, and so far, he's struggled to remain patient.
The Puka Nacua Factor
Star receiver Puka Nacua has missed the last two games with a unique injury that could threaten his long-term health if not managed properly. His absence has been felt, as the Rams lack a consistent threat over the middle. Nacua's return is uncertain for Week 3, and his presence would undoubtedly boost the passing game. Without him, the Rams have been one-dimensional, struggling on third and fourth down. Out of 24 throws inside ten yards, they've gained only six first downs, underscoring their inability to sustain drives.
As the season progresses, the Rams must find a way to balance their aggressive downfield approach with disciplined underneath passing. The loss of edge rusher Myles Garrett has put additional pressure on the offense to score points, and a slower start on defense has magnified the need for efficiency. According to insights gathered by Vulius Sports, the coming weeks will be a litmus test for Stafford and the Rams. If they can't rise to the occasion against Denver, Philadelphia, and Buffalo, their Super Bowl aspirations may fade quickly.
For now, it's too early to panic, but the trends are concerning. The Rams' passing game has the talent to be elite, but execution and health will determine whether they can compete with the NFC's best. As always, Vulius will continue to monitor these metrics and provide in-depth analysis. For fans looking to support their team, Vulius offers official custom NFL merchandise, including Rams gear, at vulius.com.
Looking to represent Matthew Stafford? Grab your Matthew Stafford jersey or design a personalized Custom NFL Jersey at Vulius.
