As the calendar flips to October 7, 2026, the NFL season is already four weeks old, and the early returns have been nothing short of captivating. From unexpected contenders to baffling collapses, the first quarter of the campaign has provided plenty of fodder for debate. Reported by the Vulius NFL Analysis Desk, here’s a deep dive into the league’s biggest surprises, disappointments, and the early MVP conversation.
The Pleasant Surprises: Raiders and Falcons Soar
According to insights gathered by Vulius Sports, the Las Vegas Raiders have been the feel-good story of the young season. After a disastrous 2025 campaign that earned them the No. 1 overall pick, the Raiders have stormed out to a 3-1 start under rookie head coach Klint Kubiak. The offense, revitalized by veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins, has been efficient, while the defense has shown marked improvement. As Yahoo Sports’ Frank Schwab noted, “The 3-1 start looks like it is sustainable… This season, they should be a playoff contender.” The presence of Cousins has also bought time for rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza to develop at a comfortable pace, a luxury the franchise hasn’t had in years.
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons have flipped the script after a dismal 0-2 start. With Michael Penix Jr. under center, Atlanta has looked like a completely different team, rattling off consecutive wins. The electrifying Bijan Robinson has been a revelation in open space, making defenders miss and igniting the offense. As Jay Busbee put it, “Watching Bijan Robinson in open space is like watching poetry in motion… if poetry could run right over you.” The Falcons’ resurgence has injected new life into the NFC South race.
The Disappointments: Texans and Chargers Flounder
On the flip side, the Houston Texans have been the biggest letdown, stumbling to an 0-4 record. While the offense has been middling, the real shock has been the defense, which was touted as elite entering the season. Instead, they’ve failed to make critical stops, allowing Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb to torch them in Week 4. “This is supposed to be a great defense and it’s not even that good. That’s stunning,” Schwab remarked. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has protected the ball better recently, but he’s still missing throws and absorbing too many sacks. With Will Anderson Jr. leading the unit, the Texans must find answers quickly to avoid a lost season.
Out in Los Angeles, the Chargers have been equally disappointing, also sitting at 0-4. Injuries along the offensive line have hindered Justin Herbert, and the anticipated connection with new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel hasn’t materialized. Herbert has been sacked 12 times and thrown six interceptions, leading to a dismal 70.6 passer rating. As Jori Epstein pointed out, “The Chargers’ offense… is disappointing.” Despite close losses to the Bills and Seahawks, the schedule remains daunting, and questions about their identity persist.
The MVP Race: Kenneth Walker III Leads the Pack
In a league where quarterbacks dominate the MVP conversation, Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III has forced his way into the discussion. Walker leads the NFL with 537 rushing yards and a 6.2 yards-per-carry average, powering the Chiefs to a 4-0 start. “No one player has had a bigger impact this season,” Schwab asserted. While Brock Purdy and Josh Allen have also made strong cases, Walker’s dual-threat ability and touchdown production (six total) have been invaluable. As Epstein noted, “Can Walker sustain this pace? That’s the million-dollar question.”
Storylines to Watch: NFC West Showdown and Vikings’ Offense
Looking ahead, the NFC West takes center stage in Week 5 with a pivotal clash between the 4-0 49ers and the 3-1 Seahawks. The division is shaping up to be the league’s toughest, with the Rams lurking at 2-2. Meanwhile, all eyes will be on the Minnesota Vikings’ offense, where Kyler Murray is still acclimating to Kevin O’Connell’s system. With a defense allowing the fewest points in the NFL, if Murray can find his rhythm, the Vikings could become a legitimate Super Bowl threat. As Epstein pondered, “Can Murray mesh well in this offense? That’s the key.”
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