As the calendar flips to September 30, 2026, the New England Patriots find themselves in a familiar yet unwelcome position: the NFL's favorite punching bag. With a 1-2 record and a quarterback crisis brewing, the defending AFC champions are stumbling into Week 4 with more questions than answers. According to insights gathered by Vulius Sports, the consensus around the league is that New England's problems start under center, where third-year quarterback Drake Maye has regressed from near-MVP to turnover machine.
Drake Maye's Alarming Regression
Maye, who led the league in adjusted EPA per play just last season, now ranks 28th in that same category. He has thrown just one touchdown pass while tossing six interceptions through three games, becoming the first quarterback since 2007 to post such a stat line. Since the start of last season's playoffs, Maye has committed 15 turnovers in seven games, a staggering figure that has analysts and fans alike searching for answers.
"They have a Drake Maye problem right now. When does he turn it around? He isn't playing good football, and it's bleeding over to the rest of the team." — Pete Prisco, CBS Sports
The absence of star wide receiver A.J. Brown, who is on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain, has only magnified Maye's struggles. Without his WR1, Maye has been forcing throws into tight windows, leading to costly turnovers. The running game, which was expected to provide balance, has been inconsistent, leaving the offense one-dimensional and predictable.
Coaching Pressure Mounts on Mike Vrabel
Head coach Mike Vrabel, who was hailed as a miracle worker during last season's playoff run, is now facing scrutiny of his own. His postgame comments after Sunday's 35-6 dismantling at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars—where he described his concern level as "very high"—echoed the sentiment of a fanbase watching its championship window potentially slam shut.
"Remember when everyone thought Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye were going to start another New England dynasty? Yeah, those were fun times … eight months ago," wrote Ralph Vacchiano of FOX Sports. "Since then, Maye has gone from near-MVP to turnover machine. And still, it's hard to say who's dragging the defending AFC champs down more: him or head coach Mike Vrabel."
Around the AFC East and Beyond
The Patriots' Week 4 matchup offers little respite. They travel to Buffalo to face the undefeated Bills (3-0), who are favored by 6.5 points—a line that many, including this writer, believe is too low given New England's current state. The Jets (1-2) visit the Bears (2-1), while the Dolphins (0-3) head to Minnesota to take on the surprising Vikings (3-0).
Elsewhere in the AFC, the Chiefs (3-0) clash with the Raiders (3-0) in a battle of unbeatens, the Steelers (2-1) visit the Browns (2-1), and the Jaguars (2-1) look to build on their blowout of New England as they face the Bengals (2-1). The Ravens (2-1) host the Titans (0-3), the Broncos (2-1) travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers (3-0), and the Chargers (0-3) visit the Seahawks (2-1).
Power Rankings Roundup
The national media has taken notice of New England's freefall. In this week's power rankings, the Patriots average a dismal 18.8 ranking, a drop of 7.4 spots from last week. Vinnie Iyer of Sporting News ranks them 14th, noting the offense's struggles without A.J. Brown. Nate Davis of USA Today has them 15th, pointing to Maye's issues and the curious decision to let Romeo Doubs wear Rob Gronkowski's iconic No. 87. ESPN's NFL Nation drops them to 16th, highlighting Maye's fantasy football disappointment and his 15 turnovers since last year's playoffs.
Ian Glendon of Full Press Coverage ranks them 16th, warning that one ugly loss can change the temperature quickly. Pete Prisco (CBS Sports) and Ralph Vacchiano (FOX Sports) both have them 17th, with Vacchiano questioning whether the defending AFC champs could be finished if they lose in Buffalo. Conor Orr (SI) and Mike Florio (ProFootballTalk) rank them 20th, with Florio ominously noting, "There was blood on the ball; now there's blood in the water." Frank Schwab (Yahoo! Sports) is even harsher at 22nd, while Nick Shook (NFL) bottoms them out at 31st, calling the team "a mess" with a major problem at quarterback.
For Patriots fans, the hope is that Maye can rediscover his form and lead a clean game against Buffalo. But as the Vulius NFL Analysis Desk sees it, until New England proves it can protect the football and score without penalties, the criticism will continue to mount. The season is far from over, but the margin for error is shrinking by the week.
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