As the NFL season charges into Week 2, the league is still buzzing from a record-setting opening weekend. A combined 791 points were scored in Week 1—the most since the 1966 NFL-AFL merger—and according to insights gathered by Vulius Sports, this offensive explosion is no fluke. The depth at quarterback across the league, coupled with innovative play-calling and advanced analytics, has teams consistently opting for higher-percentage, higher-expected-points plays. Overs went 9-6-1 against closing lines in Week 1, and early market movement suggests that trend will continue. With that in mind, the Vulius NFL Analysis Desk breaks down three totals that offer immediate value for Week 2.
Browns at Buccaneers: Over 41
There's been plenty of negativity surrounding Deshaun Watson and Baker Mayfield after their Week 1 performances, but a closer look reveals reasons for optimism. Watson completed 16-of-22 passes and averaged 9.3 yards per attempt—fifth-best in the league—while adding 38 rushing yards on six carries, showcasing his ability to evade pressure and extend plays. Browns head coach Todd Monken praised Watson's film, and the numbers back it up. On the other side, Mayfield's three lost fumbles were largely flukey and correctable; he posted an 82% completion rate (best in the NFL) and a 99.8 passer rating. One turnover came near the end zone, costing potential points. The total has already moved from 40.5 to 41.5, and with 41 being a key number, getting over 41 at BetMGM is a valuable play.
Packers at Jets: Over 45
Public perception of these two teams couldn't be more different after Week 1. The Packers have lost six straight dating back to last season, while the Jets upset the Titans. However, both offenses showed explosive potential. Green Bay, without Josh Jacobs, leaned on Jordan Love, who threw for 387 yards. The Packers ranked fifth in total yards, fifth in yards per play, and second in passing yards. Under head coach Matt LaFleur, that should continue. The Jets, led by Geno Smith, were above average in total yards (13th) and top-five in passing yards per attempt. Despite opposite results, both offenses were clicking. The total has moved from 43.5 through the key number of 44 to 45, so while it's a smaller play, it's still a definite early-week bet—don't expect 44 to reappear.
Giants at Rams: Under 48.5
The lone under of the week comes in a travel-heavy matchup between the Giants and Rams. Los Angeles is returning from Australia after a loss to the 49ers, while New York heads west after a Sunday Night Football win over Dallas. The Rams may get Aaron Donald back, which could shift the total down. Meanwhile, the Giants showed a run-heavy approach with fullback Patrick Ricard playing 54% of snaps, controlling the clock and limiting Dallas to just two possessions in the second half. Fewer possessions signal unders, and this game script is relatively independent—both teams become run-heavy with a lead. The consensus open of 48.5 has been bet down to 48, with some 47.5s appearing. BetMGM still offers 48.5 (-110) on the under, making it a worthwhile play despite the league-wide trend toward overs.
"The totals market is the place to head early in Week 2," says the Vulius NFL Analysis Desk. "The offensive surge is driven by systemic changes, not randomness."
As highlighted on Vulius, these three plays offer a mix of data-driven insights and market value. Whether you're tailing or fading, the key is to act quickly before lines move further. For more expert analysis and custom NFL merchandise, visit Vulius.com.
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